Why ICBMs Are Trending in Pakistan: Facts vs Fears (2025)

Gist of the VOA article (US says Pakistan developing missiles that eventually could hit US)

• U.S. concerns: A senior White House official stated that Pakistan is developing long-range ballistic missiles potentially capable of reaching the United States.
• Strategic intent: Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer warned this trend could pose a future threat to U.S. security.
• Missile tech upgrade: Pakistan is reportedly testing larger rocket motors and sophisticated missile systems.
• Sanctions imposed: The U.S. has sanctioned Pakistan’s state-owned National Development Complex and other entities tied to missile development.
• Diplomatic strain: U.S. concerns have been raised directly with Pakistani officials, with little substantive response.
• Pakistan’s response: Islamabad dismisses the claims as “unfounded” and “irrational,” stating its missile program is solely defensive.
• Historical context: Pakistan’s current missile range (Shaheen-III) is capped at 2,750 km, but the U.S. fears a shift beyond this limit.
• Geopolitical backdrop: The situation reflects eroding U.S.–Pakistan ties, U.S.–India alignment, and Pakistan’s growing defense links with China.

Understanding Missile Types and Technologies

What Is a Missile?

A missile is a guided airborne weapon designed to deliver explosive payloads to a designated target with varying levels of range, speed, and precision. Modern missile systems are broadly categorized based on launch platforms, trajectory types, propulsion, range, and warhead capacity.

Types of Missiles by Trajectory and Purpose

Classification by Range

Key Technical Features

What Makes ICBMs Unique?

• Strategic Deterrence: Form the backbone of second-strike capability
• MIRVs: Carry multiple independently targetable nuclear warheads
• Submarine-Launched: More survivable, hard to detect
• Prompt Global Strike (PGS): ICBMs can hit any target in under 30 minutes

Global Missile Inventories by Country (2025)

United States Missile Arsenal

• Missile Defense: Patriot, THAAD, Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD – Alaska).

Russian Missile Arsenal

• Missile Defense: S-300, S-400, S-500 (strategic-level).

China’s Missile Force

• Missile Defense: HQ-9, HQ-22; limited anti-ballistic systems.

India’s Missile Arsenal

• Missile Defense: BMD Phase I in place; Phase II (anti-ICBM) under development.

Pakistan’s Missile Capabilities

• Missile Defense: No indigenous ballistic missile shield as of 2025.

Israel’s Strategic Arsenal

Iran’s Missile Arsenal

• Missile Defense: Relies on Russian-made systems; limited indigenous SAMs.

Comparative Summary Table (ICBM Nations)

Missile Components, Capabilities & Future Technologies

Anatomy of a Missile: Core Components

Ballistic vs Cruise vs Hypersonic Missiles

Types of Ballistic Missiles by Range

Modern Missile Technologies

MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles)

• Allow a single missile to strike multiple targets.
• Reduces cost per target and overloads missile defense systems.
• Countries with MIRVs: U.S., Russia, China, India (Agni-VI), possibly Pakistan (Ababeel).

B. MaRVs (Maneuverable Reentry Vehicles)

• Can change course during reentry to evade interception.
• Used in newer Russian and Chinese systems.

Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs)

• Launched by ICBMs or IRBMs, then glide at hypersonic speeds.
• Hard to track or intercept due to unpredictable trajectory.
• Russia (Avangard), China (DF-ZF), U.S. (under development).

Stealth Cruise Missiles

• Use terrain-hugging and radar-evading designs.
• Ideal for precision strikes (e.g., India’s Nirbhay, Pakistan’s Ra’ad).

Missile Defense Countermeasures

Missile Defense Systems Overview

Proliferation, Strategic Doctrines, Threat Scenarios & Arms Control

Global Missile Proliferation Trends

Missile technology is no longer the preserve of superpowers. Regional actors are acquiring or developing advanced missile systems, including nuclear-capable platforms, due to:

• Technological diffusion via black markets
• Strategic insecurity in conflict-prone regions
• Dual-use components accessible via commercial trade
• State and non-state alliances

First Use vs. No First Use (NFU): Definitions

• No First Use (NFU):
  A pledge by a nuclear-armed state not to use nuclear weapons first, but only in retaliation after a nuclear attack.
• First Use (FU):
  A doctrine where a country reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first, even in response to conventional (non-nuclear) aggression.

Countries and Their Nuclear Use Policies

Pakistan’s Nuclear Use Policy:

Pakistan Maintains a First Use Policy.

Pakistan does not follow a No First Use policy. Instead, it reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first, especially in response to a major conventional military threat from India.

1. Doctrine of “Full Spectrum Deterrence”:
   Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division (SPD) and National Command Authority promote a flexible, full-spectrum nuclear deterrence, including tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs), aimed at countering India’s Cold Start Doctrine.
2. Rejection of India’s NFU Pledge:
   Pakistan has consistently rejected India’s No First Use policy as “not credible,” citing ambiguity in India’s own stance.
3. Credible Statements from Pakistani Leadership:
   • In 2002, then-President Pervez Musharraf said:

“Nuclear weapons are weapons of deterrence. However, if our existence is threatened, we will use them.”

3. In 2015, Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry said:

“Pakistan has not made any commitment for No First Use.”

3. In 2019, Prime Minister Imran Khan reiterated that Pakistan’s nukes are for deterrence, not war; but did not endorse NFU.
4. Tactical Nukes Emphasis:
   The development of low-yield Nasr (Hatf-IX) missiles supports Pakistan’s early-use doctrine in case of an Indian incursion.

Summary of Pakistan’s Nuclear Use Policy

Missile Doctrine Comparison

Strategic Threat Scenarios

India-Pakistan Escalation

• Trigger: Terror attack or border skirmish
• Risk: Pakistan uses tactical nukes → Indian full-spectrum retaliation (Agni-V)
• Outcome: Risk of global conflict due to nuclear escalation

Israel-Iran Confrontation

• Trigger: Iran nears nuclear breakout capability
• Risk: Israeli pre-emptive strikes → regional war involving Hezbollah, U.S. bases
• Missiles Used: Iran’s Shahab, Israel’s Jericho III, Iron Dome/Arrow-3 defenses

China-Taiwan Conflict

• Trigger: Taiwan independence declaration
• Risk: China launches DF-21D/DF-26 against U.S. Navy
• Response: U.S. uses THAAD/Patriot, counterstrikes

North Korea vs. USA/Japan/South Korea

• Trigger: Missile test over Japan or nuclear detonation
• Risk: Pre-emptive strike on Pyongyang
• NK Response: Hwasong-17 launched towards Guam or Alaska

Russia-NATO Standoff

• Trigger: Baltic confrontation or Ukraine expansion
• Risk: Use of Iskander missiles, Sarmat ICBMs (strategic threat to U.S. mainland)
• NATO Response: Deployment of Patriot, THAAD in Eastern Europe

Arms Control Treaties & Breakdown

Rising Concerns:

• Lack of universal participation (e.g., China, Israel, Pakistan)
• Treaty collapses (INF, Open Skies)
• Modernization race → New Cold War

Missile and Nuclear Policy Recommendations

1. Revive INF-like bilateral treaties involving U.S., Russia, and China.
2. Expand MTCR and HCoC participation to include Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran.
3. Implement regional missile control frameworks (e.g., South Asian Missile Test Notification Agreement).
4. Increase transparency in missile inventories through third-party audits (e.g., via IAEA).
5. Incorporate hypersonic weapons in new arms control treaties, given their destabilizing nature.

Final Summary: Complete Article Takeaways

1. ICBMs are strategic, long-range missiles critical to nuclear deterrence.
2. Pakistan lacks ICBMs, but U.S. fears about its intentions have caused alarm.
3. India, China, and Israel already possess or are developing advanced ICBM systems.
4. Missile types include ballistic, cruise, hypersonic, each with different ranges and technologies.
5. Comparative missile doctrine shows varying postures from NFU (India, China) to tactical first use (Pakistan).
6. Missile defense systems are becoming more advanced but may still be overwhelmed by MIRVs or HGVs.
7. Regional conflicts involving missiles remain a key threat to global stability.
8. Treaties are failing, and new global cooperation is necessary to manage escalation risks.
9. Social media trends in Pakistan on ICBMs reflect deep anxieties post-India strikes and U.S. intelligence leaks.
10. Strategic planning in 2025 must consider missile threat realism, defense readiness, and global diplomacy.